WUI (Writing under the influence)

The guys at Powerline think so. But there is some reason for concern.

In a shocking victory, PiS (the conservative Law & Justice party) won the general election on Sunday according to exit polls. The PO (centrist Civic Platform), which had led all of the popular opinion polls in recent weeks came in second.

Yes, this is in fact shocking. As I said in this post, I hoped "the new coalition [...] will have PO as the majority party with PiS following as the (distant?) second." But it wasn't even close.

OBOP & PBS exit polls show the following results: PiS (27.8%), PO (24.1%), SLD (Democratic Left Alliance, 11.2%), LPR (right-wing, nationalist League of Polish Families, 10.4%), Samoobrona (left-wing, populist Self-Defence party, 10.4%), PSL (agrarian party, 5.9%), SdPL (left-wing Social Democracy of Poland, 3.3%), and Democraci.pl (centrist, pro-business party 2.7%). According to these agencies, voter turnout was 38.3%.

GfK Polonia agency exit polls show the following: PiS (28.26%), PO (26.48%), SLD (10.97%), LPR (8.25%), Samoobrona (10.16%), PSL (5.68%), SdPL (3.27%), and Democraci.pl (2.76%). GfK Polonia shows that voter turnout reached 40.4%.

What's worse, my father's party, LPR, did much better than expected and could be now an attractive partner for a PiS-led coalition. Both parties share Euro skepticism and many ideals based in so called social justice. This could make pro-market reforms advocated by PO very difficult.

PO leaders Donald Tusk and Jan Rokita could hardly hide their disappointment in interviews following the election, even though they tried to remain diplomatic and gracious.

PO's presidential candidate Donald Tusk is expected to easily win the presidential election, which could place him at odds with a government led by the PiS (with the PO as junior coalition partner), especially over issues like tax policy.

PiS is a conservative party in terms of social issues, but, in terms of fiscal policy, it leans heavily towards the left. The PO is generally considered more pro-business and wants to reform Poland's tax policy and introduce flat taxes (15% VAT, 15% corporate and 15% personal income taxes). PiS wants to retain the progressive tax structure and says that the PO's tax plan would hurt the poorest members of society.

The only hope is that because PiS and PO have enough votes in Parliament to pass constitutional changes and override presidential vetoes they will be forced to deal.